Published 11/03/11

RI Current Economic Indicator for Q3 '11

SMITHFIELD, R.I. (Nov. 3, 2011) -- The Rhode Island Current Economic Indicator (CEI) shows that the pace of the economic recovery slowed significantly in the third quarter of 2011, creating a dark cloud looming over future growth.

According to a briefing released today by Bryant University and the Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council, the CEI increased 0.9 percent (annualized rate). This is significantly lower than the 2.2 percent in the second quarter and much slower than projected in the 2011 Q2 Briefing.

The pace of the economic recovery slowed significantly in the third quarter of 2011.

Other findings for the third quarter:

  • Internal economic conditions negatively affected the CEI in the third quarter, particularly the poor performance of the state labor market and small increase in aggregate demand;
  • General sales and gross receipt taxes, a proxy for the state aggregate demand, increased 0.3 percent (seasonally adjusted) in the third quarter compared to an increase of 3.4 percent in the second quarter and 2.3 percent in the first quarter of 2011;
  • ┬áSeasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims increased 18 percent in the third quarter compared to a decrease of 7.5 percent in the second and 8 percent in the first quarter of 2011;
  • Employment in trade, transportation, and utilities services and leisure and hospitality services was down 4.8 percent (annualized rate) in the third quarter.

The quarterly CEI, developed by economists at Bryant University, combines several key gauges of economic activity in a single statistic that measures the overall current economic conditions in Rhode Island. It is calibrated to grow at the rate of the Real Gross State Product and therefore can be interpreted as the underlying growth rate of the state economy. The CEI is calculated using the most current available data for the state.

For additional information about the RI CEI or the newsletter, contact Edinaldo Tebaldi, assistant professor of economics at Bryant University, 401-232-6901.

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